Last week, the ships, submarines, and deck aviation of the US Navy prepared to execute a massive missile and air strike against SYRIA in the case, that the Syrian armed forces used chemical weapons against the armed opposition. The blow was postponed.

Last week, Pentagon´s chief James MATTIS said that the Syrian authorities seem to have listened to the US warning about the inadmissibility of using chemical weapons on the territory of the country, which gave the US military and political leadership a reason to postpone the attack on SYRIA.

However, the United States will always find a reason for missile and air strikes against the military of Bashar al-ASSAD. Justification can be not only accusations of using chemical weapons, but any disproportionate use of ASSAD forces against armed opposition or violation of human rights and national minorities.

In the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea there is now an aircraft carrier strike group consisting of the aircraft carrier George Bush, two cruisers and two US Navy destroyers with guided missiles.

In addition, it can not be ruled out that two or three multi-purpose nuclear submarines have already been deployed in this part of the sea.

In addition, tactical aircraft from Saudi airfields (Prince Sultan airbase), QATAR (El-Udeid airbase), BAHRAIN (Sheikh-Isa air base), KUWAIT (Ahmed-Al-Jabir air base) and strategic aviation from airfields in the UK and the continental US can be used to strike at Bashar al-ASSAD. Finally, strategic B-1B bombers deployed on the Markaz-Tamarid airbase in OMAN can be used.

At the same time, the military and political leadership of the United States can consider the forces and assets at its disposal as inadequate and can further deploy one or two carrier-based strike groups in the Eastern Mediterranean, two or three shipborne strike groups, several nuclear submarines of the Ohio class converted into carriers of cruise missiles, and also to relocate to the airbases of the Middle East tactical aviation formations from Europe and the continental US. The available capabilities for the rapid deployment of troops (forces) allow the command of the US Armed Forces to carry out all this in the shortest possible time.

Thus, based on the experience of previous conflicts, in the first massive missile and air strike, the United States can use against Assad up to 1,500 air and shipborne cruise. For example, in the operation "Iraqi Freedom" in 2003, more than 400 air and sea launched cruise missiles were launched only in the first two days of the campaign at objects on the territory of IRAQ, and their total number during the armed conflict exceeded 1500 pcs. In the last 15 years, the capabilities of US military in this regard have increased many times.

If the grouping of the US armed forces in the region are tasked with physical elimination of Bashar al-ASSAD and the subsequent establishment of new Syrian government, loyal to the US, then the primary targets of the attack will be the residences of the president ASSAD, the posts of the highest levels of political and military establishment and communication centers.

In this case, the strategic, tactical aviation of the USAF and deck aviation of the US Navy will use numerous anti-bunker munitions such as BLU-109/B, GBU-31 and super heavy bombs like GBU-57 MPAs. The latter are able to penetrate a multi layer of reinforced concrete.

Weakened by a long-term civil war, Syria, with its modest military budget, can not oppose such attack.

The capabilities of the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in SYRIA are very limited because of its small combat and numerical strength : several thousand military personnel, including a large number of military advisers, dozens of aircraft, of which modern fighters such as the Su-30SM and Su-35S are only few units , and only two S-300V and S-400 air defense missile battalions of incomplete configuration intended for the defense of the airbase of Khmeimim and the Russian Navy base in TARTOUS.

In order to repel real US attack on SYRIA, it would be necessary to relocate almost half of the Russian army and the Navy, including dozens of fighter and bomber aviation regiments, anti-aircraft missile and radio engineering units and formations, reconnaissance units, EW, communications and institutions of the rear. But there are no such maneuvers on the Russian side.

In this case, military-political goals for which Russia should get involved in an armed conflict of this scale, which, moreover, threatens to develop into an exchange of nuclear missile strikes are not understandable.

At the same time, Moscow categorically can´t allow, in its presence, to attack the Russian ally in the region with impunity.

The reputational losses for the Kremlin in this case will be too great. In addition to disgrace, US military actions against Assad can lead, without any exaggeration, to the virtual elimination of Russia as a competitor in global politics.